I pretty much agree although I'm maybe a bit more optimistic regarding PES. I think its AI is getting a little over-hyped though because while it's attacking AI is a joy to play with, like you said there are issues with it's defensive team AI. I also still find issues with the individual AI in situations where players don't react as they should, like going for a lose ball.
And there still can be major lapses in realism - in my last match I scored too beautiful screamers playing as Inter... both coming from Zanetti. I'm not sure that Zanetti has ever scored two goals in a match, let alone two screamers from outside the box. It can really take away from the experience. Plus, I find the ball physics to really let the game down.
But I have to say, when switching between the two demos, PES to me just feels better. This, though, was the case last year but I simply couldn't overlook its many faults elsewhere, and once you get back into FIFA you can kinda get accustomed to the movement physics. This year, though, PES is a pretty big improvement with less issues to overlook. And the second demo is so much better than the first, I'm astounded that they released the first at all.
Ironically though, because it's been so poor in FIFA in the past, if CM is a good as it looks, that in itself will guarantee much time spent in FIFA.
All these things ring sadly true. I'm still really happy with PES, in that I know that I'll be able to enjoy it this year offline, and, overall, I think it's probably my favourite football game ever made assuming the major major bugs have been ironed out.
But, and it's a big but, there is SO much which needs to be done to get this game really right. And that's fine: PES has come on a lot in the last two years. It's improving fast enough to satisfy me. FIFA isn't. Most of the issues that are in FIFA 12 were in FIFA 09 - and there is simply no reason why they shouldn't have been solved by now. With PES, it was so bad with 2008/2009 that it's understandable why they are where they are with PES 2012, but with FIFA it's a travesty of failed potential (similarly tragic to how disappointing PES 2008 was frankly).
I know which game I'm going to be playing most this year, but it will almost all be offline, primarily local multiplayer - and I'm sure me and my friends will have a blast playing it - and for that I'm looking forward to it massively. Unfortunately, I still feel that the football games are WAY behind most of the other franchises I'm looking at this year.
F1 2011, Battlefield 3, Trials Evolution, Skyrim - not only do these games seep quality from every angle, they also have strong competitors which are also very solid. Ironic, considering how much critical acclaim FIFA gets, and how many sales it gets, but football gaming fans must be some of the least provided for at the moment.
I'm really happy with PES 2012, but objectively I know that's because of how poor I find the past games in FIFA and PES, rather than because it's truly brilliant. It shows moments of brilliance, but it's just not the finished product even in terms of gameplay.
Will try later with my 1080p, not feel the urge 
