a delay for seasonal sport games do hurt the sales big time, period. business is pouncing on the opportunity and for these games that is when the season is about to start, in the build up to the season, new transfers, everyone wanting to try their new team, do a season or two on manager mode or whatever. as for 16 month development cycles, that's probably the most stupid idea i have ever encountered. just to give you a tidbit, that 'solution' of yours would mean 3 games every 4 years. for games like fifa and pes, that is suicide. fortunately they will never do it.
So let's get this straight, you think that it's better for Konami to release the game, unfinished, in October so you can have a quick couple of seasons then abandon it later in the year, rather than wait just 8 or so weeks and have a massively more polished and complete game. Hmm.
As for releasing the game in October, I don't buy what you're saying. The fact is that the two games come out at the same time, but Konami's sales had been falling with each year, and that directly corresponded with the largely held opinion that the game had gotten worse and worse. So, no, just getting the game out to correspond with FIFA hasn't helped it's sales in the slightest. No game with a reputation for being a bit shit will ever succeed, which is why if it's necessary for Konami to release the game a little later to improve it's quality, then the better wider opinion will ultimately sell more copies in the long run, as well as garnering the wider opinion that the game is a viable competitor to FIFA.
The same analogy can be said about Modern Warfare 2 and Battlefield. MW2 came out around October, sold by the bucketloads (like FIFA), but then along came Battlefield Bad Company 2 nearly 5 months later in March, and it's done incredibly well because it's proven to be a far better game. Subsequently, the critical success has meant that the next instalment of Battlefield 3 is destined to become huge. Had DICE rushed out Bad Company 2 months early just to coincide with MW2's release, you'd have had a far worse game and it wouldn't have converted a lot of people in the first place, and the Battlefield franchise wouldn't have kicked off anywhere as much as it seems to be this year.
Quality sells, not early release dates. Sure, if you can get the game out to compete with FIFA then great, but only if the quality is right - because if it's not, people will still buy FIFA in October and not PES.
I see what you say, if the games were evenly matched then one coming out later would be commercial suicide, but they're not. General opinion has swung to the point where the majority seem to think FIFA is now the market leader for football games, and Konami need to make sure their title begins to overtake EA's game in quality before they even start to think about getting their release dates in early.
As for the 16 month cycle being ludicrous, well, that depends on what you want. I want a game where each new edition has great improvements in gameplay, features, graphics, everything. You on the other hand seem happy to have the same game released at the beginning of each season with a couple of extra bells and whistles attached, and new kits, nothing more. Which is fine. All depends on what you want. But if you want them to release a game each October and expect massive improvements each time, it ain't gonna happen, because developers need more time than that. Take the Halo series. It's considered one of the best examples of the FPS genre, but in 10 years they've only released, what, 4 games? I wouldn't say that should be the case for football games of course, but improvements and advancements take time, something consumers themselves aren't allowing.