Pretty decent post!
Agree with the manual passing feeling good in Pes2021. Also agree with some of the aspects you mention about 'ball physics', as it definitely includes the variety of outcomes (situational /contexual). Pes2021, although improving in this area, certainly needs to increase the variety of outcomes (trajectories, spins, errors). But at the heart of ball physics.. the fundementals, the first thing that needs to be present is a realistic looking and feeling ball.. as it moves around the pitch. It needs to fly though the air, roll on the ground, as physically close to the real thing as possible, before even considering variation. And thats what i reckon pes2021 does better than any version. The ball actually has weight to it, which i dont feel with other football games.
I do agree that although we want manual, and full control, which is what PES2021 gives well, there needs to be more stat bases elements involved... a shite midfielder for a <70 rated team/player, shouldnt be able to pass exactly like an Iniesta. I do think that, even on manual, i do feel a difference when passing with a good passer compared to a mediocre player, but i think the difference should be greater..and there should be more errors involved.... particularly due to poor positioning...or when tries a first-touch pass while under pressure..
Shooting is an interesting one. Definitely not boring and predictable for me... i go into free-training, and have a blast playing against the keeper (and maybe a couple of defenders) trying various shots, and i see a lot of different shooting techniques, side footers etc..and a variety of trajectories and spins. And im seeing awesome variety in headers as well. This has improved heaps this year. Im also seeing more variation with shooting errors (soft miskicks or big up n unders going well above the bar) this year as well.
But again, can it do with more variety - of course it can. Dont really think you can compare or look at those long range goal compilations, where of course they are going to look very similar... same type of shooting. Lately ive been, and seen the ai as well, shoot a lot of the low shots into the corner... this never really happened last year.
Anyways, again this needs to improve. And, if anything seems on rail, i think its the keeper's saves of the long shots.. they are a bit too similar.
Im hoping, and quite optimistic that 'variation' in outcomes and animations will be a big focus with Pes2022... as well getting the transitioning of these increased outcomes/animations to look as smooth and natural as possible.