Licensing is to blame to a large extent, as I see it. If licenses weren't exclusive, any game could have licensed teams and have a chance of selling the minimum amount required for the next game to be worthwhile. As it is, EA have most of them sewn up, with Konami clinging on to the few they have and trying to pry EA's fingers away from one or two of the fringe exclusives.
Back in the late 90's when nobody really had licenses, the technology involved in football games was pretty simplistic and the gap between the presentation of the game and the real deal was utterly vast, there was a pretty even footing between every company. You didn't have to sell as many to break even, and the title of 'best' football game was within reach of almost anyone. That just isn't true at the moment; you need hundreds of people to make a valid contender, you need a lot of sales to make it worthwhile and not having licences simply isn't good enough anymore.
There could probably be one more football series to contend with what we currently have. But it's telling that, amongst those few alternative titles that have emerged like FIFA Street, Ubi's game and the Sensi reboot, nobody has tried to release a 'serious' football sim. The only place you can find people attempting to make those is on phones, where the conditions of the late 90's exist.
(seems arcadish, less fouls):
