But russia won't go that far. That's opening too many fronts.
re-arranged said:
lo zio, Russia won't do this as Europe is more important partner to us than, for example, USA.
yeah, i think it won't happen too.... but then i also didn't expect usa to extend the space-shield to Poland, till 2 weeks ago, so it's hard to say what's going to happen next.
as for the europe-russia commercial partnership, u're right Re-arranged. but i wouldn't call it a proper commercial parntership honestly. i mean, a proper commercial partnership implies both "contractors" to have (almost) the same bargaining power, while in this case the situation is pretty different.
russia litterally sustain our economies, by providing some "vital support" to our industries, while the only thing europe does is feeding russia's gross domestic product (by buying russian gas).
but while russia could get what they need from (almost) anybody else (turkey, saudi arabia, middle east, china) europe has no other options (norhtern african gas supplies aren't enough to feed the european giant).
so, it's not really a proper parntership, as we depend on russian gas much more than russia depends on european money.
however even though a gas supply cut is not likely to happen, it doesn't really matter, as, in this kind of situations what really counts is not what each side will eventually do, but what each side COULD do. Your POTENTIAL options are what really count, as they establish your leverage, your bargaining power.
and that's why i think this incident won't degenerate into "something bigger". europe can't afford to sustain its economy without russian support, and usa can't afford to set up a strategy wich goes against european interests.
but then again, i might be wrong.
however guys, i think there's no point in trying to establish "who's the one to blame" or "who has the bigger faults". if u look at it from the various point of views, everyone is right.
georgia is trying to control his own territory (as it doesn't matter what people in russia or ossetia think, ossetia is still a georgian territory), to preserve their sovereignty.
russia is trying to preserve his control and his political influence on the caucasian region.
and usa are trying to show they won't let russians do whatever they want in the caucasian region, as they clearely don't want russia to increase its influence on the region.
and of course, as soon as u take a look at those pic edmundo posted or at the pics on the newspapers, u also realise that everyone is wrong aswell (at the same time).
but that's pretty normal. it's politics we're talking about afterall. international relations are not about being right or wrong, there's no such thing. it's all about having the biggest negotiating power, the biggest bargaining power.